There’s always a frontier. First, it was the sea. Then, the sky. Now, everything beyond. Competition is over orbits, launch-pads, and lunar dust. It is not a nostalgia act, but rather a live geopolitical rehearsal for the balance of power to come.
If the Cold War’s race to the Moon was about symbolism, today’s version is about control of infrastructure, alliances, technology, and, above all, rules. Whoever writes the code of conduct for the stars will shape the future of space and the architecture of global influence.
The United States and China stake a claim for the Moon and the ideological terrain around it. Washington launched the Artemis Program, backed by the Artemis Accords—a framework built on transparency, openness, and the rule of law. It’s the closest thing space has to a constitution. It draws signatories like gravity draws matter, declaring: space belongs to everyone, but leadership must be earned.
Beijing sees it differently. Through the International Lunar Research Station—a planned Moon base launched with Russia and increasingly carried by China—it builds a parallel architecture of influence. Quietly. Systematically. And with a very different vision of order.
China knows space is about leverage. Its BeiDou satellite system is now the backbone of a global positioning network used by dozens of countries, many tied to China through its Belt and Road Initiative. Infrastructure projects across the Global South are being tracked, monitored, and managed by Chinese orbital systems. Beijing also exports space hardware, builds ground stations, and signs deals—some open, many opaque. In 2023, it opened a satellite data centre in Africa for environmental monitoring. It’s billed as a climate initiative. But make no mistake: it’s also a strategic outpost. At the same time, the U.S. cut Foreign Aid in Africa. China offers a different deal: access without values, infrastructure without lectures. It’s working. The Global South is watching and choosing.
Once upon a time, it took a superpower to launch a satellite. Now it takes a startup and a reusable rocket. The real revolution is not happening at NASA or the China National Space Administration. It does at SpaceX, Blue Origin, Axiom, and dozens of other companies, transforming space from a Cold War prestige project into a 21st-century business model.
SpaceX didn’t just lower launch costs; it crushed them—from $65,000/kg to $1,500/kg, with a near-term target of $100. In doing so, it turned the impossible into a procurement order. The satellite boom is no longer a trend, it’s a flood. Over 12,000 active satellites orbit Earth today. By 2030, there will be over 100,000. It’s not just for governments, but for broadband providers, weather forecasters, and agricultural cooperatives.
Yes, even farmers are in this race. NASA estimates satellite data could help farmers cut water usage by 50%. In a world where drought defines conflict, that’s not just an economic advantage—it’s a survival tool. From precision irrigation in Kenya to flood tracking in Bangladesh, space isn’t abstract. It’s local. And it’s indispensable. It’s about communications dominance, intelligence gathering, and geoeconomic leverage.
When the Pentagon taps SpaceX to move military cargo around the world in 60 minutes, this isn’t a partnership—it’s integration. And when Chinese startups, backed by state subsidies, begin launching their own constellations, this isn’t just catch-up—it’s positioning. The line between public and private in space is blurring. And in that blur, strategy is being written.
If you want to see what modern conflict resembles, look up. In Ukraine, satellites provide battlefield intelligence. Commercial constellations spot troop movements, relay communications, and guide artillery. In Gaza, space-based tools help target and intercept rocket fire.
Satellites are now targets. Disrupt one, and the ripple hits far beyond the battlefield. Communications blackout. Banks can’t sync. Airlines can’t fly. Farmers miss weather windows. Ports stall. Russia has already tested anti-satellite weapons. China is investing in ground-based lasers and jamming technology.
The Moon is available territory. The gateway to deep space. A platform for energy, mining, and propulsion. Whoever controls access to the Moon controls tomorrow’s supply chains. China’s Chang’e missions are methodical. Tiangong, its space station, is fully operational. The U.S.-led International Space Station, meanwhile, is entering retirement. Beijing targets the Global South, offering satellite services, astronaut training, and a role in missions. In exchange, it gets allegiance and a strategic footprint.
For now, the U.S. is still ahead. In innovation. In market share. In credibility. SpaceX alone is a strategic asset. But leadership is not measured in payloads—it’s measured in stability, legitimacy, and influence. The question is whether it can match China’s precision diplomacy with the same clarity of intent. While Washington has built a coalition of the willing in space, Beijing is building a coalition of the dependent.
Satellites guide missiles. They monitor borders. They keep armies connected. Disrupt them, and the consequences don’t stay in orbit. Both the U.S. and China now have dedicated space commands. NATO has declared that attacks on space assets could trigger Article 5. Anti-satellite weapons have been tested. And the rules? Almost nonexistent. We still lack the digital equivalent of the Geneva Convention for orbit.
The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 was written in an era of rotary phones. It says you can’t put nukes in space. That’s good. But it says little about commercial conflict, satellite swarms, or orbital debris fields.
In space, there’s no sheriff. No court. No clean-up crew. And yet, this is the most valuable real estate humanity has ever opened. You don’t win the future by watching it unfold. You win it by launching first and bringing others with you.
Dimitris Kollias, Junior Research Fellow, ELIAMEP
This opinion piece has been selected as part of To Vima International Edition’s NextGen Corner, an opinion platform spotlighting original voices from the emerging generation on the issues shaping our time.
