VATICAN CITY—Cardinals of the Catholic Church cast their first vote for a new pope on Wednesday evening, but black smoke rising from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel indicated that no contender had reached the necessary majority yet.
The papal election will continue on Thursday with up to four rounds of voting. A candidate needs to attract at least 89 votes, or a two-thirds majority of the 133 cardinal-electors, to become the successor to the late Pope Francis as leader of the global Catholic Church with its 1.4 billion faithful.
A decisive outcome wasn’t expected on Wednesday, but many cardinals and other church officials predicted before the conclave that a result could come on Thursday or Friday. Most conclaves in the modern era have taken only two or three days.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s No. 2 official under the late Pope Francis, is presiding over the conclave and is the front-runner in the secretive election to choose the new leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. On Wednesday evening he—but not the outside world—could observe just how many of his brethren backed him in the first and only round of voting for the day.
A large crowd of tens of thousands of faithful, and not a few tourists who happened to be in Rome, gathered in St. Peter’s Square in anticipation of possible white smoke, indicating the election of a pope. In the event, the smoke was a thick black, eliciting sighs of disappointment among the onlookers.
The conclave had begun late in the Rome afternoon, when the 133 cardinal-electors in full-length red and white vestments filed into the Sistine Chapel. They bowed in front of the altar under Michelangelo’s monumental fresco of The Last Judgment.
Cardinals prayed, took an oath of secrecy and lined up behind desks installed for the occasion. The Master of Pontifical Liturgical Ceremonies then uttered the command “Extra omnes”—Latin for “everybody out”— and all except those taking part in the conclave left the chapel. The heavy wooden doors were closed and bolted.
A strong showing in Wednesday’s first round of 40 or more votes for Parolin or for a rival could create momentum to eventually garner the support needed to succeed the late Pope Francis.
Interviews with cardinals and their confidants, however, reveal a wide-open race . Whatever support Parolin might have quietly amassed before Francis died has been severely tested as cardinals from around the world have converged in Rome for pre-conclave deliberations.
Parolin is seen by some cardinals as a reliable functionary, but not the charismatic voice sought by progressive electors nor the doctrinally sound option that conservatives want. Many have questioned Parolin’s lack of pastoral skills as well as his bluntness in barring another cardinal—Francis’ former chief of staff Angelo Becciu — from the conclave.
On Wednesday morning, the cardinal-electors attended a Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica, their last public appearance before they entered the Sistine Chapel for the first round of voting. During the Mass, Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the 91-year-old dean of the College of Cardinals, alluded to the church’s ideological tensions between progressives and conservatives under Francis, using his homily to give the voting cardinals “a strong reminder to maintain the unity of the Church on the path laid out by Christ to the Apostles.”
“The unity of the Church is willed by Christ; a unity that does not mean uniformity, but a firm and profound communion in diversity, provided that full fidelity to the Gospel is maintained,” Cardinal Re said.
Cardinals have been meeting daily inside the Vatican’s Synod Hall, delivering speeches on issues ranging from the sacraments to world peace. They have also been consulting more discreetly over private dinners, where names of candidates are being floated.
The question on many cardinals’ minds—if Parolin doesn’t prevail in early rounds of voting—is who are the alternatives. Contenders include Cardinal Robert Prevost , an American who has developed an extensive network as the head of the Vatican office for bishops, and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille.
Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle was once among the favorites , but in recent days cardinals have indicated that Tagle’s star is fading.
Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa , the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, and Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David, bishop of Kalookan in the Philippines, have both garnered praise for their powerful speeches in the pre-conclave meetings. David is emerging as a “dark horse” contender. During a meeting of the General Congregations on Monday, David impressed his peers with his knowledge of the Bible in a speech that addressed justice and poverty.
Cardinal Ludwig Müller , the Vatican’s former enforcer of doctrine and an ideological conservative, said many cardinals were seeking a “clone” of Francis who can draw attention like the globe-trotting pontiff.
The German cardinal said pastoral skill is a key criteria for the next pope, but he cautioned against candidates who position themselves as “religious entertainers” to garner mass appeal.
Müller also cautioned cardinals against placing too much emphasis on the next pope’s ability to administer the Vatican’s government, the Curia, or to steer its extensive diplomatic operations. The next pope, he said, needs to have a strong command of church teachings and their underlying doctrines.
“Jesus didn’t send the church into the world to make diplomacy,” Müller said in an interview.
Part of the challenge facing any papal contender is that openly campaigning for the job is widely considered unbecoming of a future pope. That means cardinals have to subtly suggest they are up for the job—by kissing babies or delivering powerful sermons at Sunday Mass—without actually asking for votes.
The vote gathering, instead, falls to influential senior cardinals who have no chance of being elected. Even then, politicking carries risks.
One cardinal from the global south said he was shocked how openly some Italian cardinals were pushing Parolin.
“Some of them even came to me in the pre-conclave. They greeted me, said ‘Oh, good to see you.’ And then, ‘Please vote for him,’” he said.
Some ideological conservatives, who are outnumbered and struggling to find a viable candidate of their own, are likely to support Parolin, who they expect will pump the brakes on some of Francis’ more controversial programs, according to multiple people in contact with cardinals.
During pre-conclave meetings, cardinals voiced their concerns about the sharp divisions within the church left by Francis’ pontificate. The cardinals, from 70 countries, have been debating whether they want to continue with Francis’ push toward a more modern and open church or return the focus to tradition and moral doctrine.
The Vatican’s troubled finances—with a projected deficit of about 80 million euros, the equivalent of roughly $90.1 million, for 2024—have also been a topic of discussion, leading some cardinals to advocate for a new pope with a proven record as a strong manager.
Regional affiliations could also play a key role. Multiple Latin American cardinals said that the group from that region knew each other well and shared Francis’ vision of a church that reaches out to those on the peripheries of society and invites laypeople to play a meaningful role.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi of Japan told Italian newspaper La Repubblica that the Asian cardinals would likely vote for just one or two candidates, which could give them more power than the splintered Europeans.
“We will see the first ballot, and we will see which name will appear as the leading candidate, and I am sure that one of them will come from Asia. And then we will have some discussions tomorrow night,” he said.
